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Industry study 10 of 24 · Supply Chain Research Companion

Warehouse Automation, Robotics and Autonomous Trucking

~8,000 words · 2 technical exhibits

Labour is the largest controllable cost in a warehouse and the driver is the largest cost of a truck, so the oldest promise in logistics is a machine that removes them. In warehouses the promise is now real at scale: Amazon Logistics, which bought Kiva Systems for ~$775m in March 2012, said in July 2025 that it had deployed its one-millionth robot, against ~1.56m employees at the end of 2024, and introduced an AI model (DeepFleet) that it said cut robot fleet travel time by ~10% (company, reported). Symbotic, which automates Walmart's regional distribution centres, reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of ~$721m (+~22% y/y) and a backlog of ~$22.5bn (August 2026, reported), most of it from one customer. But automation has also produced some of the industry's costliest mistakes: SPAC-era robotics companies that collapsed, grocery fulfilment centres that never reached the volumes they were built for (Kroger said in November 2025 it would close three Ocado-equipped sites and take an impairment of ~$2.6bn; Ocado later said it would receive ~$350m in compensation, reported; see Ocado), and a patent war between Ocado and AutoStore settled in 2023. On the road, Aurora Innovation began carrying freight without a driver between Dallas and Houston on 1 May 2025 (some reports say late April), then put an observer back in the cab within three weeks at truck-maker Paccar's request; by Q3 2026 it reported ~$3m of quarterly revenue, a ~$234m net loss and a target of ~200 driverless trucks by end-February 2027 (company, reported). TuSimple, once the sector's listed leader, left the US business and renamed itself CreateAI in 2024. This section explains the automation technologies and their economics, who builds and buys them, why projects fail, how autonomous trucking works as a business, and what automation does to labour. Two companion files size an autonomous-mobile-robot fleet for peak demand and give an automation and autonomy diligence checklist.

What the study covers

  1. 1Overview: replacing the walk and the drive
  2. 2Warehouse technologies
  3. 3The industry: vendors, integrators and buyers
  4. 4Buyer economics and why projects fail
  5. 5Amazon Robotics and Walmart–Symbotic
  6. 6Ocado, AutoStore and Kroger
  7. 7SPAC-era busts and failures
  8. 8Autonomous trucking
  9. 9Labour effects
  10. 10How to read automation and autonomy numbers
  11. 11Key numbers
  12. 12Landmark companies and cases
  13. 13Pitfalls
  14. 14How an expert thinks about it
  15. 15Glossary

Technical exhibits

Worked examples, checklists and case studies included with this study.

Amr Fleet Sizing for Peak Worked Example

A stylized e-commerce fulfilment centre with goods-to-person robots: robots and stations needed for an ordinary week, the peak week and the peak day with congestion, the grid's throughput ceiling, and five ways to cover peak (own for peak, own for the peak week, own a base fleet and rent robots, manual overflow) with their annual cost and late units (computed in Python)

Automation and Autonomy Diligence Checklist

Questions to ask of a warehouse-automation project, vendor or integrator, and of an autonomous-trucking provider or partner

Companies in this study