Disruptions, Chokepoints and Resilience

Supply chains are built for the average week and judged in the worst one. Since 2020 the worst weeks have come often. The Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal for six days (23–29 Mar 2021); the COVID goods boom left more than a hundred container ships waiting off Los Angeles and Long Beach at the peak in early 2022 (reported) and pushed the Drewry World Container Index composite to a record $10,377/FEU in Sep 2021 (Drewry, 16–23 Sep 2021); Houthi attacks from 19 Nov 2023 sent most container lines around the Cape of Good Hope, a diversion still only partly reversed at Nov 2026; drought cut Panama Canal transits in 2023–24; the Dali brought down Baltimore's Key Bridge on 26 Mar 2024, closing the port's channel until 10 Jun 2024; the East and Gulf Coast ports struck for three days (1–3 Oct 2024); and the 2026 Iran war effectively halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz from early Mar 2026, with Brent above $115/bbl in March and a reported high of $126.41/bbl on 30 Apr 2026 (Energy 19). Container rates on the busiest US lane reflect the compound effect: Drewry WCI Shanghai–Los Angeles ~$7,514/FEU on 29 Oct 2026, against ~$2,290/FEU a year earlier (reported; verify). Cyberattacks — Maersk's NotPetya losses (Jun 2017; $200–300m estimated by the company in Aug 2017, later ~$250–300m, reported), Expeditors (Feb 2022) and Blue Yonder (Nov 2024) — showed that a disruption can start in software. This section explains the kinds of disruption, the chokepoints that matter, the major cases since 2011, how disruptions propagate, and how resilience is priced and bought. Two companion files tell the Red Sea and Key Bridge cases and work through what a second-port contract and a second supplier are worth to a stylized US importer.